The 47th: Trump in America

 

Published as “The 47th: Trump in America” (online), organised by Centre for Constitutional Law and Governance (CCLG), Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law (RGNUL), Patiala, Punjab, on 7 November 2024.

Join Dr. Saurav Sarmah in this insightful video as he explores the complex landscape of American politics surrounding Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency. Presented by the Centre for Constitutional Law and Governance, this discussion unpacks Trump’s enduring influence on the nation, examining constitutional implications, the legal challenges tied to his leadership, and the broader impacts on democratic governance in the U.S. Dr. Sarmah provides a unique perspective on the evolving dynamics of American politics, making this a must-watch for students, scholars, and anyone invested in constitutional law and governance.

One correction: Trump took GDP growth to almost 3% and not 4%.

Kautilyan Theory of Power

Kauṭilya’s theory of power, as outlined in the Arthaśāstra, revolves around the concept of Vidyā (knowledge) and its application. Vidyā serves as the activator of Bala (power source), crucial in shaping Śakti (power potential) and achieving Siddhi (power outcome). Kauṭilya identifies four essential disciplines of knowledge that guide state administration: Ānvīkṣikī (cognitive methods), Trayī (Vedic texts), Vārttā (economics), and Daṇḍanīti (governance).

Ānvīkṣikī consists of three schools of thought—Sāṃkhya (metaphysics), Yoga (meditation), and Lokāyata (materialism). Together, they provide a framework for cognitive analysis and decision-making. Sāṃkhya offers metaphysical insights into the nature of reality, Yoga enhances mental discipline, and Lokāyata brings a practical, materialistic approach to understanding the world. Trayī, encompassing the teachings of the Vedic texts, serves as the moral foundation of power. It imparts Dharma (morality), guiding rulers in the ethical aspects of governance. A ruler’s adherence to Dharma ensures the legitimacy of their power, fostering trust and stability within the state. Vārttā focuses on the economic aspects of governance, teaching Artha (wealth acquisition, maintenance, and preservation). Daṇḍanīti, the discipline of governance, imparts knowledge of Naya (policy) and Bala (power). It equips the ruler with the skills needed to enforce laws, manage state resources, and protect the realm from internal and external threats.

Vidyā produces Jñāna-Bala (knowledge power), enabling a ruler to develop Mantra-Śakti (the power of decision-making), which leads to Mantra-Siddhi (the successful achievement of determined outcomes). Kośa-Daṇḍa-Bala (transactional and coercive power) stems from economic prosperity and the effective use of force, forming the backbone of Prabhu-Śakti (the authority of the government). This, in turn, allows a ruler to achieve Prabhu-Siddhi (independent policymaking and the maintenance of order). Vikrama-Bala (heroic power), another vital form of power derived from Vidyā, particularly Ānvīkṣikī, empowers a ruler to act decisively in the face of challenges. From this emerges Utsāha-Śakti (the will to act), a crucial force driving Utsāha-Siddhi (decisiveness). This form of power, rooted in a ruler’s moral conviction and courage, leads to successful governance and the realisation of the state’s goals.

Ultimately, the various Siddhis (achievements) resulting from the proper application of Vidyā lead to Sukha (the fulfillment of power), representing the achievement of the ultimate goals of government, power, and knowledge. This holistic approach, as outlined by Kauṭilya, offers profound insights into the intricate dynamics of power and governance.

Published as “Kautilyan Theory of Power”, VideshNeeti, 30 October 2024, 1 (5): 4.

Kauṭilya’s Arthaśāstra: Timeless Strategies for Modern Governance

 

Authors: Dr. Vinayak Rajat Bhat and Tejusvi Shukla

Publisher: IKS Division, Ministry of Education, New Delhi

Length: 114 pages

Link: :: Indian Knowledge Systems ::

Kautilya’s Arthashastra: Timeless Strategies for Modern Governance by Dr. Vinayak Rajat Bhat and Ms. Tejusvi Shukla is a meticulously crafted 114-page textbook published by the IKS Division, Ministry of Education, New Delhi. The book revives the timeless political wisdom of Kautilya, also known as Chanakya or Vishnugupta, renowned for his role in uniting Bharatavarsha into a powerful empire. His insights into governance, strategy and statecraft continue to be relevant in modern times. Authored by Dr. Bhat, an Associate Professor at Chanakya University and Ms. Shukla, a consultant in the Ministry of External Affairs, the book offers a structured analysis of the Arthashastra, making it accessible to contemporary readers. It covers both internal governance, such as the training of a king and state resource management, and external strategies, including diplomacy and warfare.

Key sections include Tantradhikara, which discusses internal affairs, including the four essential sciences — Anvikshiki (philosophy), Trayi (the three Vedas), Varta (economics), and Dandaniti (law and governance). The authors emphasise the significance of the seven prakritis — Swami (king), Amatya (minister), Janapada (territory and population), Durga (forts), Kosha (treasury), Danda (law and order) and Mitra (ally) — highlighting their importance in maintaining a strong state. The section on foreign policy, Avapadhikara, contextualises Kautilya’s strategic approach within diplomacy and warfare. It elaborates on the Shadgunya Siddhanta, which includes six foreign policy instruments: Sandhi (treaty), Vigraha (war), Asana (neutrality), Yana (preparation for war), Samashraya (seeking alliance) and Dvaidhibhava (dual policy). These strategies, along with the four upayas (sama, dana, bheda, and danda), are seen as essential tools for a skilled strategist.

The authors effectively connect the Arthashastra’s teachings to contemporary contexts, underscoring their relevance to modern governance. However, the book could benefit from a modern commentary linking these principles to current practices and from comparative analyses with other non-Western political philosophies, contributing to the decolonisation of political thought. Overall, Kautilya’s Arthashastra: Timeless Strategies for Modern Governance is a commendable effort that bridges ancient and modern governance, making it an invaluable resource for students, researchers and practitioners interested in the enduring relevance of Kautilya’s ideas.

Published as “Book Review: Bhat, V. R. and Shukla, T. (2024), Kautilya’s Arthashastra: Timeless Strategies for Modern Governance (e-book), New Delhi: IKS Division, Ministry of Education, Government of India”, VideshNeeti, 30 October 2024, 1 (5): 3.

Sheikh Hasina’s Fall from Power

On 5 August 2024, Bangladesh saw a dramatic power shift when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the

country, handing over authority to General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the Chief of Army Staff. This occurred after security forces failed to control mass protests in Dhaka, primarily led by university students dissatisfied with a controversial quota system in government jobs. The system allocated 30% of jobs to the grandchildren of freedom fighters, who are mostly Awami League loyalists, alongside quotas for women, backward districts, minority communities and people with disabilities. On 21 July 2024, the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh reduced the quota system to 7%. Despite this, the protests continued, driven by deep distrust in the government and anger over Sheikh Hasina’s handling of the situation. Her remark, “Why do they [the protesters] have so much resentment towards the freedom fighters? If the grandchildren of the freedom fighters don’t get quota benefits, should the grandchildren of Razakars get the benefit?” further inflamed tensions, with protestors accusing her of autocracy. 

Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, despite being marred by accusations of autocracy, also witnessed significant economic growth. Since 2009, Bangladesh’s economy has quadrupled, fuelled by the textile sector and remittances. Her government maintained balanced relations with India and China and took a firm stance against Pakistan’s collaborators from the 1971 Independence War. However, tensions simmered due to perceived government nepotism and corruption. Muhammad Yunus, with close ties to the American establishment, became the head of the interim government after Hasina’s exit. His administration includes technocrats, student leaders and prominent figures. Reports of attacks on Hindus and Awami League members since Yunus took power are concerning, particularly for India, given the historical context and the presence of Bangladeshi and Rohingya immigrants in India. The involvement of pro-Pakistan Islamists and the US’s alleged interests further complicate the situation. This shift sets a troubling precedent, highlighting the fragile balance between democratic legitimacy, national stability and regional geopolitics.

Published as “Sheikh Hasina’s Fall from Power”, VideshNeeti, 15 August 2024, 1 (4): 1.

Political Regimes: Democratic and Authoritarian

Political regimes are broadly categorised as democratic or authoritarian. The democratic regimes hold regular, free and fair elections to elect their governments, whether that be led by a president or the leader of the parliament, a prime minister. In the parliamentary system, the head of state is either a hereditary constitutional monarch or an elected ceremonial president. The United States has a presidential system with the separation of powers between the three branches of government. The United Kingdom is a parliamentary monarchy - a combination of a constitutional monarchy, a democratic parliament, and responsible ministers. India is a parliamentary republic with an elected president, parliament and council of ministers. The authoritarian regimes are of many types - dynastic monarchy, one-party dictatorship, military dictatorship, theocratic supervisorship or elective autocracy. Saudi Arabia and most other Gulf states have a single family-run monarchical government. China and North Korea are examples of one-party dictatorships, with the latter combining dynastic and party dictatorships. Myanmar has a de jure military junta, while Pakistan has a de facto military-supervised parliamentary government. In Iran, a presidential government is under the supervision of Twelver Shia clerics, led by the Supreme Ayatollah. Russia and Turkey are examples of elected governments headed by strongmen who have eliminated all genuine opposition through exile, assassinations and imprisonments. 

There has been an observable trend of democratisation since the beginning of the 20th century, termed by Samuel Huntington as the three waves of democratisation, because of which most countries of the modern world have democratic systems. As the people of the world become more educated and travel around the world, their awareness of democratic values increases, and they begin to demand democratic rights for themselves. Sometimes, such demands are suppressed brutally, e.g., the Tiananmen Square Massacre in China. Sometimes, the local culture cannot sustain democratic values, e.g., Afghanistan, Syria or Egypt. Sometimes, democratic movements are used as tools of regime change to destabilise a country and install puppet regimes, e.g., colour revolutions, but they often bring calamity to the country, e.g., Georgia, Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, or Yemen.

Published as “Political Regimes: Democratic and Authoritarian”, VideshNeeti, 16 May 2024, 1 (3):4.

India, a Beacon of Democracy for the World: Diversity, Argumentation and Mutual Respect

For a democratic system to thrive, there must be the prevalence of democratic values in society, viz., diversity of ideas, culture of argumentation and tolerance of criticism. India has been a beacon of democracy, even after several centuries of resistance to foreign aggression and the fight against colonialism, because of (i) its diverse darshanas - Charvaka, Buddhist, Jain, Samkhya, Yoga, Advaita, Dvaita, etc.; (ii) a culture of shastrartha - openness to purva paksha (opponent’s view) and readiness to engage in rigorous intellectual disputations; and (iii) mutual respect (that goes beyond tolerance) of different sampradayas, including readiness to absorb criticisms by correcting one’s mistakes in uttara paksha (defence of one’s tradition). Thus, India has always been oriented toward democratic values. In contrast, the European countries adopted diversity, argumentation and tolerance, only after a lot of bloodshed, at the end of World War II in the West and the Cold War in the East. India granted universal adult suffrage in its constitution in 1949 and implemented it in its first democratic election in 1952, while the US did so only in 1965 and Switzerland in 1971. In this way, India has a better tradition of democratic values than either Europe or America, and this self-confidence is reflected in our regular, free and fair elections.

Published as “India, a Beacon of Democracy for the World: Diversity, Argumentation and Mutual Respect”, VideshNeeti, 16 May 2024, 1 (3): 1.

Echoes of Suffering: The History of the Armenian People

The Armenians are an Indo-European linguistic group with more than 2500 years of history. They formed the Kingdom of Armenia out of the Achaemenid Zoroastrian Persian Empire in 321 BC. They were the followers of Indo-European polytheism and then Zoroastrianism, before the conversion to Christianity of the Armenian King Tridat or Tiridates III. He was baptised by Gregory the Illuminator in 301. Thus, Armenia became the first state to adopt Christianity as the state religion, and Gregory was made the first head of the Armenian Apostolic Church.

Being at the crossroads of two great empires, Roman and Persian, Armenia could not emerge as an independent regional power. Nevertheless, the Armenians retained their distinct heritage and culture due to the mountainous terrain of their South Caucasus homeland and the martial spirit of their ancestors. They also migrated to different parts of West Asia and left their cultural footprints, e.g., the Armenian Quarter of Old Jerusalem. 

With the advent of Islam, the Armenian identity was threatened, and the Ottoman Sunni Turkic and Safavid Shia Persian Empires dominated portions of Armenia. During World War I, about 1.2 million Armenians disappeared from the Ottoman Empire. It is considered to be the first genocide of the 20th century, perpetrated by the Turkish military to eliminate the Armenian Christians, whom they considered collaborators of the Russian Empire. Thus, the Armenians lost the Western part of their homeland. 

The Eastern part had been captured by the Russians from the Persians. Then, it became a part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. It was organised into the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1989-91, Armenia emerged as an independent republic, and after a war with Azerbaijan, it established Nagorno-Karabakh as the de facto Republic of Artsakh. 

However, the international community regarded Nagorno-Karabakh as the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. In 2020, amidst the rising power of Azerbaijan due to oil and gas resources and the support of Turkey, the Armenian forces were defeated by the Azeris, and the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh were disarmed. Finally, in 2023, Azerbaijan annexed the region, and the majority of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians became refugees. The International Court of Justice has ordered Azerbaijan to ensure the safety of the remaining ethnic Armenian population in the region and allow the safe return of those who migrated to Armenia. 

However, the situation remains dire for the Armenian refugees. Since 2020, the Republic of Armenia has been provided with military equipment by India and France. The history of the Armenian people supports the realist worldview described by Thucydides as “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.

Published as “Echoes of Suffering: The History of the Armenian People”, VideshNeeti, 1 March 2024, 1 (2): 3.

National Power by Kautilyan Parameters

Mahabharata Mbh 12.59.33 and Kautilya’s Arthashastra KA 1.2.1 identify four sources of knowledge – (a) Anvikshiki (cognitive methods); (b) Trayi (Vedic texts); (c) Vartta (economics), and (d) Dandaniti (governance) for the King. Based on a modern interpretation of this tradition, a method of measurement of national power called Kautilyan National Power Index (KNPI) can be explored. KNPI consists of four parameters derived from the four sources of knowledge. The KNPI parameters are: (a) cognitive power; (b) moral power; (c) transactional power; and (d) coercive power.

Anvikshiki, according to KA 1.2.10, consists of Sankhya (metaphysics), Yoga (behaviourism) and Lokayata (materialism), corresponding to cognitive abilities in a modern sense. Cognitive power is the ability to gain, interpret, produce and distribute knowledge. Knowledge is the basis of power enhancement through strategic thinking, technological advancement and international influence. Some of the indicators to measure the cognitive power of a nation are (i) Global Knowledge Index, (ii) Average IQ Level, (iii) Health Care Index, (iv) Global Hunger Index and (v) Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism.

The Global Knowledge Index measures the education, research, innovation, information and communications technology and the enabling environment in a nation. In 2020, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries ranked the highest in knowledge production. Besides the actual knowledge production, some psycho-physiological factors also influence the cognitive abilities of a nation, viz., IQ level of the population, public health and care facilities and nutrition of the population. In some of these, East Asian countries perform better than Western nations. Another important indicator is religious belief; however, its impact on power is very complex. On one hand, less religiosity encourages a more scientific outlook; on the other, being the centre of a religious sect provides a country with power over people in other countries that have a large population of that sect. For example, the Holy See influences more than a billion Roman Catholics, Saudi Arabia has influence on Sunni Muslims, Iran on Shias, the United States and Israel on Jews and Evangelical Christians and India on Hindus and Buddhists. This adds to their national power.

Trayi, according to KA 1.3.1-4, consists of the Vedic texts, the determinants of dharma. It corresponds to the social order prevalent in a nation and its moral legitimacy among the international community. It can be termed moral power and measured with (i) World Happiness Index, (ii) Good Country Ranking, (iii) World Index of Moral Freedom, (iv) Corruption Perceptions Index and (v) Democracy and Freedom Indices. Good standard of living, absence of corruption, freedom of speech and religion, etc., preserve the social order, and willingness to act according to international norms, multilateralism, peaceful negotiations of disputes, etc., promote moral legitimacy. However, these ratings are affected by (a) the subjectivity of their “unnamed” experts, as argued by Sanjeev Sanyal and Aakanksha Arora (2022) and Salvatore Babones (2022), (b) Western civilisational bias and (c) liberal-socialist ideological bias. As a result, many of the smaller European countries tend to be ranked higher than other countries. Some of the freedom parameters in these ratings are deregulation of drug distribution and consumption, access to pornography and prostitution, cohabitation of unmarried couples, right to unilaterally declare one’s gender, etc., which contradict dharmic morality.

India can develop and promote International Dharmic Index, based on Indian values, e.g., (i) carbon footprint per capita, (ii) low meat diet, (iii) religious and social diversity in terms of number of gods and ethnicities, (iv) culture of celebrations in terms of number of festivals and auspicious days, (v) family responsibility – old parents supported by children, children brought up in joint families, low divorce rate, etc. and (vi) crime per capita.

Vartta and Dandaniti (KA 1.4) refer to the disciplines of economics and governance, which correspond to tangible hard power, consisting of (i) transactional power and (ii) coercive power. They can be measured with (i) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP growth rate, GDP per capita, Human Development Index and Ease of Doing Business and (ii) size of the territory and population, military personnel, steel production, access to energy resources and advanced weapons and nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, respectively. There are indices like the Composite Index of National Capability (CINC), the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index and the Chinese Comprehensive National Power (CNP) indices that measure the overall national power and then rank the nations according to the points. The CINC emphasises the tangible hard power, especially the coercive power of a nation:

CINC = (TPR + UPR + ISPR + ECR + MER + MPR) * / 6

*TPR = total population of the country ratio. UPR = urban population of the country ratio. ISPR = the iron and steel production of the country ratio. ECR = primary energy consumption ratio. MER = military expenditure ratio. MPR = military personnel ratio.

The latest CINC dataset on national material capabilities ranks China, the US, India, Russia and Japan (in this order) as the five most powerful countries in the world. The Chinese CNP indices have diverse parameters, including both hard and soft power components. Different Chinese institutions have developed their own CNP parameters, e.g., Academy of Military Science (AMS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). Tsinghua University has two CNP indices – one developed by Hu Angang and Men Honghua and the other by Yan Xuetong.

India can develop two international indices based on Kautilyan parameters derived from Indian knowledge tradition: (a) Kautilyan National Power Index (KNPI); and (b) International Dharmic Index.

KNPI = cognitive power + moral power + transactional power + coercive power. International Dharmic Index = quantification of Indian values (moral power).

For this purpose, India should promote and determine its own indices of national power by assessing the international distribution of power and the projection of the nation’s knowledge capabilities.

Published as "National Power by Kautilyan Parameters", Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi, 2 January 2024. https://www.kalingainternational.com/saurav_sarmah.html

Understanding the Dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan

On 15 October 2023, President Ilham Aliyev raised Azerbaijan's flag in Stepanakert, the capital of the former de facto Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), an ethnic Armenian political entity, recognised as a sovereign territory of Azerbaijan by the international community. Since the 1990s, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Artsakh, with the support of Armenia, had enjoyed de facto independence, and both the republics had built an integrated socio-economic-political space. The Armenians speak an Indo-European language and adhere to the Armenian Apostolic Church, while the Azeris, the majority of the population of Azerbaijan, speak a Turkic language and adhere to the Twelver Shia Islam. Turkey has been a consistent supporter of Azerbaijan in its quest to integrate Artsakh. In September-November 2020, Azerbaijan defeated Armenia and Artsakh in war, leading to an agreement brokered by Russia. The ethnic Armenians were disarmed, with only Russian peacekeepers to defend them in the region. However, with Russia preoccupied with the War in Ukraine, Azerbaijan decided to fully annex Artsakh on 19-20 September 2023. A population of more than 120,000 ethnic Armenians surrendered, and the majority of them were forced to migrate to Armenia.

On 17 November 2023, the International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to ensure the safety of the remaining ethnic Armenian population in the region and allow the safe return of those who migrated to Armenia. Armenia has been very concerned about the lack of support from the international community, especially CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), a collective defence organisation of Armenia, Russia, and four other states. India and France have, since the 2020 war, supplied weapons to Armenia, despite the protests of the Azeri government. Although India has some interests in terms of oil and gas exploration in Azerbaijan and supports its territorial integrity, the Azeri and Turkish support for Pakistan's position in Jammu and Kashmir has led to cold relations with India. India advocates a peaceful resolution of the dispute such that the human rights of ethnic Armenians are not infringed upon.

Published as “Understanding the Dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan”, VideshNeeti, 1 January 2024, 1 (1): 2.