National Power by Kautilyan Parameters

Mahabharata Mbh 12.59.33 and Kautilya’s Arthashastra KA 1.2.1 identify four sources of knowledge – (a) Anvikshiki (cognitive methods); (b) Trayi (Vedic texts); (c) Vartta (economics), and (d) Dandaniti (governance) for the King. Based on a modern interpretation of this tradition, a method of measurement of national power called Kautilyan National Power Index (KNPI) can be explored. KNPI consists of four parameters derived from the four sources of knowledge. The KNPI parameters are: (a) cognitive power; (b) moral power; (c) transactional power; and (d) coercive power.

Anvikshiki, according to KA 1.2.10, consists of Sankhya (metaphysics), Yoga (behaviourism) and Lokayata (materialism), corresponding to cognitive abilities in a modern sense. Cognitive power is the ability to gain, interpret, produce and distribute knowledge. Knowledge is the basis of power enhancement through strategic thinking, technological advancement and international influence. Some of the indicators to measure the cognitive power of a nation are (i) Global Knowledge Index, (ii) Average IQ Level, (iii) Health Care Index, (iv) Global Hunger Index and (v) Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism.

The Global Knowledge Index measures the education, research, innovation, information and communications technology and the enabling environment in a nation. In 2020, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries ranked the highest in knowledge production. Besides the actual knowledge production, some psycho-physiological factors also influence the cognitive abilities of a nation, viz., IQ level of the population, public health and care facilities and nutrition of the population. In some of these, East Asian countries perform better than Western nations. Another important indicator is religious belief; however, its impact on power is very complex. On one hand, less religiosity encourages a more scientific outlook; on the other, being the centre of a religious sect provides a country with power over people in other countries that have a large population of that sect. For example, the Holy See influences more than a billion Roman Catholics, Saudi Arabia has influence on Sunni Muslims, Iran on Shias, the United States and Israel on Jews and Evangelical Christians and India on Hindus and Buddhists. This adds to their national power.

Trayi, according to KA 1.3.1-4, consists of the Vedic texts, the determinants of dharma. It corresponds to the social order prevalent in a nation and its moral legitimacy among the international community. It can be termed moral power and measured with (i) World Happiness Index, (ii) Good Country Ranking, (iii) World Index of Moral Freedom, (iv) Corruption Perceptions Index and (v) Democracy and Freedom Indices. Good standard of living, absence of corruption, freedom of speech and religion, etc., preserve the social order, and willingness to act according to international norms, multilateralism, peaceful negotiations of disputes, etc., promote moral legitimacy. However, these ratings are affected by (a) the subjectivity of their “unnamed” experts, as argued by Sanjeev Sanyal and Aakanksha Arora (2022) and Salvatore Babones (2022), (b) Western civilisational bias and (c) liberal-socialist ideological bias. As a result, many of the smaller European countries tend to be ranked higher than other countries. Some of the freedom parameters in these ratings are deregulation of drug distribution and consumption, access to pornography and prostitution, cohabitation of unmarried couples, right to unilaterally declare one’s gender, etc., which contradict dharmic morality.

India can develop and promote International Dharmic Index, based on Indian values, e.g., (i) carbon footprint per capita, (ii) low meat diet, (iii) religious and social diversity in terms of number of gods and ethnicities, (iv) culture of celebrations in terms of number of festivals and auspicious days, (v) family responsibility – old parents supported by children, children brought up in joint families, low divorce rate, etc. and (vi) crime per capita.

Vartta and Dandaniti (KA 1.4) refer to the disciplines of economics and governance, which correspond to tangible hard power, consisting of (i) transactional power and (ii) coercive power. They can be measured with (i) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP growth rate, GDP per capita, Human Development Index and Ease of Doing Business and (ii) size of the territory and population, military personnel, steel production, access to energy resources and advanced weapons and nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, respectively. There are indices like the Composite Index of National Capability (CINC), the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index and the Chinese Comprehensive National Power (CNP) indices that measure the overall national power and then rank the nations according to the points. The CINC emphasises the tangible hard power, especially the coercive power of a nation:

CINC = (TPR + UPR + ISPR + ECR + MER + MPR) * / 6

*TPR = total population of the country ratio. UPR = urban population of the country ratio. ISPR = the iron and steel production of the country ratio. ECR = primary energy consumption ratio. MER = military expenditure ratio. MPR = military personnel ratio.

The latest CINC dataset on national material capabilities ranks China, the US, India, Russia and Japan (in this order) as the five most powerful countries in the world. The Chinese CNP indices have diverse parameters, including both hard and soft power components. Different Chinese institutions have developed their own CNP parameters, e.g., Academy of Military Science (AMS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). Tsinghua University has two CNP indices – one developed by Hu Angang and Men Honghua and the other by Yan Xuetong.

India can develop two international indices based on Kautilyan parameters derived from Indian knowledge tradition: (a) Kautilyan National Power Index (KNPI); and (b) International Dharmic Index.

KNPI = cognitive power + moral power + transactional power + coercive power. International Dharmic Index = quantification of Indian values (moral power).

For this purpose, India should promote and determine its own indices of national power by assessing the international distribution of power and the projection of the nation’s knowledge capabilities.

Published as "National Power by Kautilyan Parameters", Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi, 2 January 2024. https://www.kalingainternational.com/saurav_sarmah.html

Understanding the Dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan

On 15 October 2023, President Ilham Aliyev raised Azerbaijan's flag in Stepanakert, the capital of the former de facto Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), an ethnic Armenian political entity, recognised as a sovereign territory of Azerbaijan by the international community. Since the 1990s, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Artsakh, with the support of Armenia, had enjoyed de facto independence, and both the republics had built an integrated socio-economic-political space. The Armenians speak an Indo-European language and adhere to the Armenian Apostolic Church, while the Azeris, the majority of the population of Azerbaijan, speak a Turkic language and adhere to the Twelver Shia Islam. Turkey has been a consistent supporter of Azerbaijan in its quest to integrate Artsakh. In September-November 2020, Azerbaijan defeated Armenia and Artsakh in war, leading to an agreement brokered by Russia. The ethnic Armenians were disarmed, with only Russian peacekeepers to defend them in the region. However, with Russia preoccupied with the War in Ukraine, Azerbaijan decided to fully annex Artsakh on 19-20 September 2023. A population of more than 120,000 ethnic Armenians surrendered, and the majority of them were forced to migrate to Armenia.

On 17 November 2023, the International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to ensure the safety of the remaining ethnic Armenian population in the region and allow the safe return of those who migrated to Armenia. Armenia has been very concerned about the lack of support from the international community, especially CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), a collective defence organisation of Armenia, Russia, and four other states. India and France have, since the 2020 war, supplied weapons to Armenia, despite the protests of the Azeri government. Although India has some interests in terms of oil and gas exploration in Azerbaijan and supports its territorial integrity, the Azeri and Turkish support for Pakistan's position in Jammu and Kashmir has led to cold relations with India. India advocates a peaceful resolution of the dispute such that the human rights of ethnic Armenians are not infringed upon.

Published as “Understanding the Dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan”, VideshNeeti, 1 January 2024, 1 (1): 2.